The Guardian (UK) reported on October 10 that experts have made the following key assessments and predictions about the next several evolutionary possibilities for the new coronavirus. Will the virus spread for a long time? If the new coronavirus remains transmissible for a year, its impact will diminish and human immunity will slowly improve. Some coronaviruses are seasonal, so the number of cases may begin to decrease as spring approaches. But if the virus continues to spread at that time, it means that the virus will come back the next winter, just like the flu. At that point, the new coronavirus could become an endemic human disease. There are already four coronaviruses that have been transmitted from bats, cows and other animals to people, eventually causing widespread transmission. They cause a number of common cold symptoms, and you’ve likely had one of them. “The new coronavirus has the potential to be a fifth.” Aimesh Adria, an infectious disease scientist at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, notes, “Coronaviruses have successfully ‘taken root’ as common viruses before, and there are already four that can cause common cold-like illnesses.” If the new coronavirus remains transmissible for a year, its influence will wane and human immunity will slowly improve, and a vaccine could then protect healthcare workers and susceptible populations. “That’s a situation where a vaccine could work.” noted Pete Smith, professor of epidemiology at the University of London’s School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Can the virus mutate? Current test results show that the new coronavirus is relatively stable. Current test results show that the new coronavirus is relatively stable. But as it spreads from person to person, the virus can become an adaptive human disease. But that’s not all bad, Prof. Smith points out, “According to Darwin’s theory, viruses want to survive. And in order to survive, it is not wise for the virus to kill humans as hosts. The most successful viruses are those that infect large numbers of people but cause relatively little disease.” It is worth noting that coronaviruses do not have a genome reorganization that results in constant changes in the viral chain. Genetic changes would result in the need to tweak the design of the vaccine every year, and would also mean that getting sick once does not give a person immunity against the next period of virus transmission. But coronaviruses should not mutate so quickly. Therefore, once a vaccine is available, it should continue to work for some time to come. Can humans be prepared for the next outbreak? Humans could have done a lot to prepare for a similar public health crisis before it occurred. The Ebola epidemic killed 11,000 people and the global vaccine community was heavily criticized and widely questioned for failing to launch a vaccine in time. This time, the vaccine community moved much faster. Only a few weeks after the release of the new coronavirus DNA sequence, several vaccines have already begun animal trials. However, a year is considered fast to complete several phases of human trials to prove safety and low side effects, and wait until the vaccine is officially launched and commercially available. For this reason, there are many who point out that humanity could have done a lot to prepare for a similar public health crisis before it arose. “For me, the hardest thing is that we live in a world where prevention is hopefully achievable.” Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI) President Sis Berkley noted, “We spend a lot of money on preventing nuclear war, whereas an outbreak is a progressive, a little bit more deterministic thing, but we spend a lot less money on prevention of outbreaks, and a lot less on preparation for outbreaks. ” “During the Ebola outbreak, it was the ‘terrorist organization’ of infectious diseases. But after weeks pass, the response is ‘Ebola? That’s old news.'” Berkley poses, “The question is, how do we get people to pay attention to a health crisis like this in ‘peacetime’?” Content source: redstarnews